Forget the top 1% — Look at the top 0.1%

Forget the top 1% — Look at the top 0.1%:

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(Via The Big Picture)

QOTD: The Illusion of Skill

QOTD: The Illusion of Skill:

Our quote of the day comes from an article in this Sunday’s NYT magazine, Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence by Daniel Kahneman:

“The illusion of skill is not only an individual aberration; it is deeply ingrained in the culture of the [financial] industry. Facts that challenge such basic assumptions — and thereby threaten people’s livelihood and self-esteem — are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them. This is particularly true of statistical studies of performance, which provide general facts that people will ignore if they conflict with their personal experience.”

(Via The Big Picture)

Sounding smart vs. being right, or why you shouldn’t take investing advice from pundits

I’ve spent the past thirteen years writing about technology, and over the years I’ve gotten the impression from talking to my readers that many of them think that the job of a tech pundit is to be “right”—to scrupulously prepare a first draft of history, to accurately report what’s really going on, to correctly predict what’s about to happen. All of this may in fact be part of the job description of “tech pundit,” but this is not at all what the marketplace of ideas rewards you for.

Tech pundits don’t have to be right, and audiences don’t reward them for being right. In fact, they don’t even have to sound right. The number one rule of successful tech punditry is that you have to sound smart. And this is why you should not take investment advice from tech pundits, or in fact from pundits of any stripe.

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