Thanks for posting this, it's a nice inside view, based on a model of how technology may change, of what to expect.
But I don't think the financial markets agree with you. If there'll be a very near-term step change in the economy's productive capacity, to a higher growth rate regime, and it's foreseeable, we should see signs of it now. E…
Thanks for posting this, it's a nice inside view, based on a model of how technology may change, of what to expect.
But I don't think the financial markets agree with you. If there'll be a very near-term step change in the economy's productive capacity, to a higher growth rate regime, and it's foreseeable, we should see signs of it now. Expecting we'll all be much richer very soon should reduce savings rates (why save if we'll all be rich soon?), which should push up interest rates.
The T-bond market shows no signs of that. So, y'know, are you short Treasurys? :) There's money on the table.
Thanks, this is a good link. I’ll check it out. I think you’re right that the markets aren’t yet pricing any of this in. I need to think more about what that would look like tho.
I think fringes of the market are thinking this way like Cathie Woods of Ark. Their whole investment thesis is based on this deflationary idea. Of course they’ve been crushed in the market recently...
Thanks for posting this, it's a nice inside view, based on a model of how technology may change, of what to expect.
But I don't think the financial markets agree with you. If there'll be a very near-term step change in the economy's productive capacity, to a higher growth rate regime, and it's foreseeable, we should see signs of it now. Expecting we'll all be much richer very soon should reduce savings rates (why save if we'll all be rich soon?), which should push up interest rates.
The T-bond market shows no signs of that. So, y'know, are you short Treasurys? :) There's money on the table.
A more eloquent and more detailed version of this case: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8c7LycgtkypkgYjZx/agi-and-the-emh-markets-are-not-expecting-aligned-or
Thanks, this is a good link. I’ll check it out. I think you’re right that the markets aren’t yet pricing any of this in. I need to think more about what that would look like tho.
I think fringes of the market are thinking this way like Cathie Woods of Ark. Their whole investment thesis is based on this deflationary idea. Of course they’ve been crushed in the market recently...
Well, there’s labor cost deflation then asset price inflation/deflation. I don’t know how the two really interact tho.